Политология / политический конфликт

яю;NG52K< ?>=OB85< B5>@88 :>=D;8:B0 O2;O5BAO :0B53>@8O «2708<>459AB285».

708<>459AB285 ?@>B82>?>;>6=>AB59 8<55B >1J5:B82=K9 8 C=825@A0;L=K9 E0-

@0:B5@ 8 O2;O5BAO ?@8G8=>9 A0<>42865=8O 8 @0728B8O <0B5@80;L=KE 8 A>F80;L-

=KE >1J5:B>2. !>F80;L=>5 2708<>459AB285 2KABC?05B :0: >4=0 87 206=59H8E

G5;>25G5A:8E ?>B@51=>AB59. 0?@8<5@, ?>B@51=>ABL 2 A>B@C4=8G5AB25, 2 :>>?5-

@0F88, 2 4@C615 8 2708<>?><>I8. !0<> 2708<>459AB285 A>F80;L=KE AC1J5:B>2

>?>A@54>20=> @07;8G=K<8 8=B5@5A0<8. # >B45;L=KE 8=48284>2 8 3@C?? <>3CB

1KBL @07;8G=K5 273;O4K =0 >@30=870F8N >1I5AB20, =0 A2>5 <5AB> 2 MB>9 >@30=8-

70F88, =0 ?>;CG05<>5 2>7=03@0645=85, =0 A?@0254;82>ABL, =0 G0AB=CN A>1AB25=-

=>ABL. @8 =5A>2?045=88 8=B5@5A>2 <564C 8=482840<8, A>F80;L=K<8 3@C??0<8

2>7=8:0NB ?@>B82>@5G8O, :>B>@K5, >1>AB@OOAL, @072820NBAO 2 :>=D;8:BK. >6-

=> A:070BL, GB> 8=B5@5AK 2KABC?0NB :0: @50;L=K5 ?@8G8=K :>=D;8:B>2. =B5-

@5AK 1K20NB <0B5@80;L=K5 8 4CE>2=K5. CE>2=K5 8=B5@5AK ?@8=OB> =07K20BL

F5==>ABO<8. BAN40 ?@8G8=>9 :>=D;8:B0 <>3CB 1KBL <0B5@80;L=K5 8=B5@5AK 8

F5==>AB8. 0B5@80;L=K5 F5==>AB8 G0AB> >?@545;ONBAO :0: @5AC@AK. 5AC@AK -

MB> =5DBL, 4@03>F5==>AB8, AG5B 2 10=:5, B5@@8B>@8O 8 4@. CE>2=K5 8=B5@5AK, 8;8

F5==>AB8,  MB> A2>1>40, A?@0254;82>ABL, 02B>@8B5B, C2065=85, 7=0=8O, 2;0ABL 8 4@.

AB>@8O @0728B8O >1I5AB20 ?>:07K205B, GB> 4;O 8=48284>2 8 3@C?? >?@545-

;5==CN F5==>ABL ?@54AB02;O5B A>F80;L=K9 AB0BCA, ?>A:>;L:C 8<5==> A> AB0BCA><

A2O70=K ?>=OB85 2;0AB8, 4>ABC? : @5AC@A0<. >MB><C 5AB5AB25==> AB@5<;5=85 G5-

;>25:0 ?>2KA8BL 8;8 C45@60BL A2>9 A>F80;L=K9 AB0BCA. >@L10 70 AB0BCA  >48=

87 @0A?@>AB@0=5==KE B8?>2 A>F80;L=>-?>;8B8G5A:>3> :>=D;8:B0. G5284=>, GB>

G5< 2KH5 AB0BCA, B5< 8=B5=A82=55 1>@L10 70 =53>.

5A<>B@O =0 ACI5AB2CNI55 25AL<0 CA;>2=>5 @0745;5=85 2A59 A>2>:C?=>AB8 A>-

F80;L=KE :>=D;8:B>2 2 7028A8<>AB8 >B AD5@K @0725@BK20=8O =0 ?>;8B8G5A:85,

M:>=><8G5A:85, 4CE>2=>-:C;LBC@=K5 8 4@C385, 2A5 >=8 2 :>=5G=>< AG5B5 O2;ONBAO

<5E0=87<>< >1I5AB25==>3>, 8 2 B>< G8A;5 ?>;8B8G5A:>3>, @0728B8O.  :0:>9 1K

AD5@5 >1I5AB25==>3> @0728B8O =8 ?@>B5:0; :>=D;8:B, >= 2 B>9 8;8 8=>9 AB5?5=8

2708<>459AB2C5B A ?>;8B8G5A:>9 A8AB5<>9, 55 8=AB8BCB0<8 8 2 B>9 8;8 8=>9 <5@5

2;8O5B =0 48=0<8:C A>F80;L=>-?>;8B8G5A:>9 =0?@O65==>AB8, GB> 2545B : ?>;8-

B8G5A:8< 87<5=5=8O<, 70B@03820NI8< A8AB5<C @0A?@545;5=8O 8;8 @50;870F88

2;0AB=KE ?>;=><>G89 =0 @07;8G=KE C@>2=OE 3>AC40@AB25==>3> C?@02;5=8O.

@5645 G5< @0AA<0B@820BL A>45@60=85 ?>=OB8O «?>;8B8G5A:89 :>=D;8:B»,

53> 0B@81CB8:C, >1@0B8<AO : 107>2><C ?>=OB8N A>F80;L=>3> :>=D;8:B0. >4 ?>-

20.1. 5B>4>;>38G5A:85 >A=>2K ?>;8B8G5A:>3> :>=D;8:B0 415

=OB85<, A>F80;L=K9 :>=D;8:B, <K 1C45< ?>=8<0BL ?@>B82>1>@AB2> AB>@>=, ?@5-

A;54CNI8E =5A>2<5AB8<K5 8=B5@5AK. !D5@0 @0725@BK20=8O ?>;8B8G5A:>3> :>=D-

;8:B0  ?>;8B8G5A:85 >B=>H5=8O.

>;8B8G5A:89 :>=D;8:B  ?@>B82>1>@AB2> AC1J5:B>2 ?>;8B8G5A:>3> ?@>F5AA0

70 3>AC40@AB25==CN 2;0ABL 8;8 ?>;8B8G5A:>5 2;8O=85.

06=K<8 <5B>4>;>38G5A:8<8 ?@54?>AK;:0<8 87CG5=8O ?>;8B8G5A:>3> :>=D-

;8:B0 O2;O5BAO >A2>5=85 B0:8E ?>=OB89, :0: !B@C:BC@0 :>=D;8:B0, B8?>;>38O,

DC=:F88 :>=D;8:B0.

>=D;8:B :0: 2AO:89 A>F80;L=K9 >1J5:B 8;8 O2;5=85 8<55B AB@C:BC@C. A2>-

5=85 MB>3> ?>=OB8O =5>1E>48<> 4;O ?@>=8:=>25=8O 2 ACBL :>=D;8:B=>9 A8BC0-

F88. => ?>72>;O5B ?@>8725AB8 =0CG=>5 >?8A0=85 :>=D;8:B0. 5;L7O :20;8D8-

F8@>20==> >?8A0BL 8 >1JOA=8BL :>=D;8:B, =5 @0AA<>B@52 53> AB@C:BC@C.

!B@C:BC@C :>=D;8:B0 <>6=> >?@545;8BL :0: A>2>:C?=>ABL M;5<5=B>2, 2KABC-

?0NI8E 2 :0G5AB25 =5>1E>48<KE ACI=>AB=KE ?0@0<5B@>2 MB>3> O2;5=8O, 157 :>-

B>@KE :>=D;8:B =5 <>65B ACI5AB2>20BL :0: 48=0<8G5A:8 2708<>A2O70==0O A8AB5-

<0 8;8 ?@>F5AA. 1KG=> 2K45;ONB ?OBL AB@C:BC@=KE M;5<5=B>2 :>=D;8:B0.

!B>@>=K ?>;8B8G5A:>3> :>=D;8:B0  MB> 8=48284K, 3@C??K, >1I=>AB8, 3>AC-

40@AB20, 1;>:8, :>0;8F88 8 4@. !B>@>=0<8 2 ?>;8B8G5A:>< :>=D;8:B5 2KABC?0NB

AC1J5:BK ?>;8B8G5A:>3> ?@>F5AA0. -B> <>3CB 1KBL ?>;8B8G5A:85 ;845@K, ?>;8-

B8G5A:85 8=AB8BCBK, ?0@B88, 42865=8O, A>F80;L=K5 8 =0F8>=0;L=K5 >1I=>AB8,

?@5B5=4CNI85 =0 AC25@5=8B5B, 8 B. 4. !B>@>=K 2 ?>;8B8G5A:>< :>=D;8:B5 >1;040-

NB >?@545;5==K< :>=D;8:B=K< ?>B5=F80;><. -B> 8=B5@5AK AB>@>=, 2:;NG0NI85

2 A51O @5AC@AK 8 F5==>AB8 (AN40 2E>48B 8 ?>=OB85 «A8;0», ?@54AB02;ONI55 A>2>-

:C?=>ABL D878G5A:>9, B5E=>;>38G5A:>9 8 2>5==>9 <>I8 8 845>;>388).

@54<5B>< ?>;8B8G5A:>3> :>=D;8:B0 O2;O5BAO 3>AC40@AB25==0O 2;0ABL, 55

@0A?@545;5=85, C:@5?;5=85, @50;870F8O. >;8B8G5A:89 AB0BCA, 3>AC40@AB25==>5

CAB@>9AB2>, @0A?@545;5=85 =0F8>=0;L=KE @5AC@A>2, ?>;8B8G5A:89 @568<, =0F8>-

!. 0;8. «@54GC2AB285 3@0640=A:>9 2>9=K»

416 ;020 20. >;8B8G5A:89 :>=D;8:B

=0;L=K5 >B=>H5=8O, A8<2>;K 3>AC40@AB25==>9 2;0AB8, 55 2=5H=OO 8 2=CB@5==OO

?>;8B8:0. -B> <>3CB 1KBL 8 @5H5=8O AB@C:BC@ 2;0AB8, ?@>B82>@5G0I85 :>=AB8-

BCF88, 70:>=0<, 04<8=8AB@0B82=K< =>@<0<, 254CI85 : A>F80;L=>-?>;8B8G5A:>9

=0?@O65==>AB8, ?@>B5AB=K< 459AB28O< 87-70 CI5<;5=8O 8=B5@5A>2 @07;8G=KE

A>F80;L=KE 3@C??.

>=D;8:B=K5 459AB28O (B. 5. =5?>A@54AB25==>5 :>=D;8:B=>5 2708<>459AB285)

2KABC?0NB B@5BL8< M;5<5=B>< AB@C:BC@K :>=D;8:B0. E <>6=> @0745;8BL =0 0:-

B82=>-:>=D;8:B=K5  «2K7>2», =0ABC?0B5;L=K5 8 ?0AA82=>-:>=D;8:B=K5  «>B-

25B =0 2K7>2», >1>@>=8B5;L=K5. 0ABC?0B5;L=K5 A2O70=K A> AB@5<;5=85< ?@8G8-

=8BL 2@54, CI5@1 ?@>B82=>9 AB>@>=5, 2K=C48BL 55 : CABC?:0<, >?@545;5==><C

B8?C ?>2545=8O. 1>@>=8B5;L=K5  A 70I8B>9 A2>8E ?>78F89, AB@5<;5=85 A>E@0-

=8BL status quo 2 A8BC0F88 ?>;8B8G5A:>3> :>=D;8:B0. 708<>459AB285 :>=D;8:B-

=KE AB>@>=  ?@>O2;ONBAO 2 @07;8G=KE 2840E ?>;8B8G5A:>9 1>@L1K. -B> <>65B

1KBL B5>@5B8G5A:0O 1>@L10, B. 5. ?@>B82>1>@AB2> :>=F5?F89 @0728B8O >1I5AB20,

2>5==KE, M:>=><8G5A:8E, A>F80;L=KE 4>:B@8=. -B> 845>;>38G5A:0O 1>@L10, 1>@L-

10 845>;>38G5A:8E :>=F5?B>2, F5==>AB=KE A8AB5<, ?>;8B8G5A:8E <8D>2, G0AB>

A2>48<0O A>2@5<5==K< C@>2=5< @0728B8O ! 4> 1>@L1K ;>7C=3>2, A>F80;L=KE

AB5@5>B8?>2, @5:;0<=KE @>;8:>2. -B> 8 >@30=870F8>==0O 1>@L10, 2:;NG0NI0O

?0@B89=>5 AB@>8B5;LAB2>, D@0:F8>==CN 1>@L1C 2 ?0@;0<5=B0E, @01>BC ?> <>18-

;870F88 <0AA =0 0:F88 ?@>B5AB0, 2>2;5G5=85 M;5:B>@0B0 2 8718@0B5;L=K9 ?@>F5AA

8;8 >@85=B0F8O =0 1>9:>B 2K1>@>2, A01>B8@>20=85 @0A?>@O65=89 D545@0;L=>3>

F5=B@0 8 4@.  M:AB@5<0;L=KE A8BC0F8OE ?>;8B8G5A:89 :>=D;8:B <>65B ?@>O2-

;OBLAO 2 2845 2>>@C65==KE AB>;:=>25=89, B5@@>@8AB8G5A:8E 0:B>2, <OB5659 8 @5-

2>;NF89, 3@0640=A:8E 2>9=. >;8B8G5A:85 :>=D;8:BK =0 <564C=0@>4=>9 0@5=5

70G0ABCN 8<5NB =0A8;LAB25==K9 E0@0:B5@ 8 ?@>O2;ONBAO 2 2>9=0E 8;8 ;>:0;L-

=KE 2>>@C65==KE 8=F845=B0E.

06=K< M;5<5=B>< AB@C:BC@K O2;ONBAO CA;>28O ?>;8B8G5A:>3> :>=D;8:B0.

-B> B0 A>F80;L=0O A@540, 2 :>B>@>9 @072>@0G8205BAO :>=D;8:B, 55 A>AB>O=85. G5-

284=>, GB> A@540, 2 :>B>@>9 ?@>8AE>48B :>=D;8:B, <>65B 53> AB8<C;8@>20BL, ?@>-

B82>459AB2>20BL 53> @0728B8N 8;8 1KBL =59B@0;L=>9. >A;54AB28O :>=D;8:B0 

B0:65 =5>1E>48<K9 AB@C:BC@=K9 M;5<5=B :>=D;8:B0. =8 A:07K20NBAO =5 B>;L:>

=0 CG0AB=8:0E, => 8 =0 A>AB>O=88 A>F8C<0, =0 ?5@A?5:B820E 1C4CI53> 2708<>459-

AB28O AB>@>=, =0 E0@0:B5@5 =>2KE ?@>B82>@5G89. !;54C5B >B<5B8BL, GB> ?>A;54AB-

28O ?>;8B8G5A:8E :>=D;8:B>2 8=B5@?@5B8@CNBAO 2 >1I5AB25 =5>4=>7=0G=>. '0-

AB> >=8 A2O70=K A> A<5=>9 M;8B, AB@C:BC@8@>20=85< 8;8 ?5@5AB@C:BC@8@>20=85<

?>;8B8G5A:>9 A8AB5<K, ?5@5@0A?@545;5=85< 2;0AB=KE ?>;=><>G89, A :>@@5:B8-

@>20=85< ?@02>2KE =>@<, 87<5=5=85< >=AB8BCF88.