Eviews5 / EViews5 / Docs / x12 / FINALPT1

N 5 i?t t hi@

j •2 +W• +iuihi?Ui •@? @*

Viht L? f 2 .

•@) •Sc 2fff

A 4i 5ih it 5|@g 5|@| t| U@* +iti@hU # t L?

+LL4 fff e N 5 i?t t hi@ `@t ?}|L?c # 2f2 b•ff i4@ *G •07Qf=p p {J

l

ll

lll

4

• W?|hL_ U| L?

A i g •0 (S} ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?| ThL}h@4 t @? i? @?Ui_ iht L? Lu | i g •• V@h @?| Lu | i i?t t •i| L_ WW ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?| ThL}h@4 E5 t! ?c vL ?}c @?_ • t}h@ i •bS. A i i? @?Ui4i?|t ?U* _i @ 4Lhi ti*u i T*@?@|Lh) @?_ iht@| *itih ?|ihu@Ui @?_ @ @h i|) Lu ?i _ @}?Lt| Ut |L i*T | i tih _i|iU| @?_ hi4i_) @?) ?@_i^ @U it ? | i ti@tL?@* @?_ U@*i?_@h igiU| @_ t|4i?|t LM|@ ?i_ ?_ih | i ThL}h@4 LT| L?t ti*iU|i_ A i ThL}h@4 @*tL ?U* _it @ @h i|) Lu ?i |LL*t |L L ihUL4i @_ t|4i?| ThLM*i4t @?_ | ihiM) i?*@h}i | i h@?}i Lu iUL?L4 U | 4i tih it | @| U@? Mi @_i^ @|i*) ti@tL?@**) @_ t|i_ , @4T*it Lu | i ti Lu | iti |LL*t U@? Mi uL ?_ ? 6 ?_*i) @?_ OLL_ E•bbb

A i U iu tL hUi Lu | iti ?i |LL*t t | i i |i?t i ti| Lu | 4i tih it 4L_i* M *_ ?} u@U * | it M *| ?|L | i ThL}h@4 uLh €|| ?} @| i U@** hi} +W• 4L_i*t A iti @hi hi}hitt L? 4L_i*t | +W• E@ |Lhi}hitt i ?|i}h@|i_ 4L ?} @ ih@}i ihhLht •Lhi ThiU ti*)c | i) @hi 4L_i*t ? U | i 4i@? u ?U| L? Lu | i | 4i tih it ELh |t *L}t t _itUh Mi_ M) @ * ?i@h UL4M ?@| L? Lu hi}hittLhtc @?_ | i UL @h @?Ui t|h U| hi Lu | i tih it t | @| Lu @? +W• ThLUitt Wu ?L hi}hittLht @hi ti_c ?_ U@| ?} | @| | i 4i@?t @tt 4i_ |L Mi 3ihLc | i hi} +W• 4L_i* hi_ Uit |L @? +W• 4L_i* A ihi @hi M *| ? hi}hittLht uLh _ hiU|*) it| 4@| ?} @h L t L @?_ t|LU! |h@_ ?} _@) igiU|t @?_L* _@) igiU|t A ihi @hi @*tL hi}hittLht uLh 4L_i** ?} Uih|@ ? ! ?_t Lu _ th T| L?t ? | i tih itc Lh t __i? U @?}it ? *i i*c Lti igiU|t ?ii_ |L Mi |i4TLh@h *) hi4L i_ uhL4 | i _@|@ MiuLhi | i g •• 4i| L_L*L}) U@? @_i^ @|i*) it| 4@|i ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?|t AL @__hitt _@|@ ThLM*i4t ?L| ThL _i_ uLhc | ihi t | i U@T@M * |) Lu ?ULhTLh@| ?} tih _i€?i_ hi}hitt L? @h @M*it ?|L | i 4L_i* €||i_ A i hi} +W• 4L_i** ?} 4L_ *i Lu g •0 (S} @t @_@T|i_ uhL4 | i hi} +W• ThL}h@4 _i i*LTi_ M) | i A 4i 5ih it 5|@g Lu i?t t hi@ <t 5|@| t| U@* +iti@hU # t L?

` i| ih Lh ?L| tTiU @* ThLM*i4t hi^ h ?} | i ti Lu hi}hittLht @hi Thiti?| ? | i tih it |L Mi @_ t|i_c @ u ?_@4i?|@**) 4TLh|@?| ti Lu hi} +W• 4L_i*t t |L i |i?_ | i tih it | uLhiU@t|t E@?_ M@U!U@t|t ? Lh_ih |L 4ThL i | i ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?|t Lu | i 4Lt| hiUi?| E@?_ | i i@h* it| _@|@ #L ?} | t 4 | }@|it ThLM*i4t ? ihi?| ? | i |hi?_ it| 4@| L? @?_ @t)44i|h U ti@tL?@* @ ih@} ?} ThLUittit Lu | i |)Ti ti_ M) | i g •• 4i| L_ ?i@h | i i?_t Lu | i tih it A i ThL t L? Lu | t i |i?t L? @t | i 4Lt| 4TLh|@?| |iU ? U@* 4ThL i4i?| Lgihi_ M) 5|@| t| Ut @?@_@<t _i*) ti_ g •• (S} ThL}h@4 W|t Mi?i€|tc ML| | iLhi| U@* @?_ i4T h U@*c @ i Mii? _LU 4i?|i_? 4@?) T M* U@| L?tc ?U* _ ?} Bi i!i E•b.H c #@} 4 E•bHH @?_ LMM || @?_ ||L E•bbf @?_ | i @h| U*it hiuihi?Ui_ ? | iti T@Tiht

g •0 (S} t @ @ *@M*i @t @? i iU |@M*i ThL}h@4 uLh 4 UhLUL4T |iht E HS Lh} ih | @ 4@| ULThLUittLh h ?? ?} # 5 E iht L? f Lh } ih c 5 ? e N WjLh!t|@| L?tc @?_ V j%V•5 UL4T |iht 6 +A+ tL hUi UL_i t @ @ *@M*i uLh tiht |L Uhi@|i i iU |@M*i ThL}h@4t L? L| ih UL4T |ih t)t|i4t ` i? | t hi*i@ti_c | i g •0 (S} ThL}h@4 ** Mi ? | i T M* U _L4@ ?c @?_ 4@) Mi ULT i_ Lh |h@?tuihhi_L4T |ih €*it UL?|@ ? ?} | i U hhi?| |it| iht L? Lu | i ThL}h@4 Ei iU |@M*it uLh @h L t 4@U ?it @?_ tL hUi UL_i c | t _LU 4i?|@| L?c @?_ i @4T*itc @ i Mii? T | L? | i

5

W?|ih?i| @| qzP Qf=p p {J ? | i _ hiU|Lh) P K"zp" •0> @?_ 4@) Mi _L ?*L@_i_t ?} @?L?)4L t u|T E*L} ? @t R>=J=&2J p @?_ } i )L h u ** i4@ * @__hitt @t | i T@tt Lh_ W?uLh4@| L? L? _L ?*L@_ ?} | i hi*i @?| €*it t } i? ? | i (f>[}f €*i ? | t _ hiU|Lh) w 4 |i_ ThL}h@4 t TTLh| t @ @ *@M*i @ hi} *@h 4@ * @?_ i4@ * E| i Thiuihhi_ 4L_i Lu UL44 ? U@| L? @| | i @__hittit } i? L? | i | |*i T@}i Wu ThLM*i4t @hi i?UL ?|ihi_ h ?? ?} @ T@h| U *@h ?T | €*ic ThL _ ?} | i ?T | @?_ hit *| ?} L |T | €*it ** u@U * |@|i L h _i?| €U@| L? Lu | i ThLM*i4

A i ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?| 4L_ *i tit | i g •• ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?| 4i| L_ _i|@ *i_? 5 t! ?c vL ?} @?_ • t}h@ i E•bS. @?_ #@} 4 E•bHH A i ThL}h@4 @t @** | i ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?| U@T@M * | it Lu | i g •• @?_ g •• (S} ThL}h@4t A i t@4i ti@tL?@* @?_ |hi?_ 4L ?} @ ih@}it @hi @ @ *@M*ic @?_ | i ThL}h@4 t| ** Lgiht | i g •• U@*i?_@h @?_ L* _@) @_ t|4i?| hL | ?it

A i ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?| 4L_ *i @t @*tL Mii? i? @?Ui_ M) | i @__ | L? Lu ti ih@* ?i LT| L?tc ?U* _ ?}

E@ | i t* _ ?} tT@?t _ @}?Lt| U ThLUi_ hitc ** t|h@|i_ ? 6 ?_*i)c •L?ti**c 5 *4@? @?_ } E•bbf (

EM | i @M * |) |L ThL_ Ui | i hi t L?t t|Lh) Lu @ } i? ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?|(

EU @ ?i Oi?_ihtL? |hi?_ €*|ih hL | ?i U @**L t | i tih |L U LLti @?) L__ ? 4Mih uLh | i *i?}| Lu | i Oi?_ihtL? €*|ih(

E_ ?i LT| L?t uLh ti@tL?@* €*|iht(

Ei ti ih@* ?i L |* ih _i|iU| L? LT| L?t uLh | i hhi} *@h UL4TL?i?| Lu | i ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?|(

Eu @ |@M*i Lu | i |h@_ ?} _@) u@U|Lht M) |)Ti Lu _@)( E} @ Tti _L @__ | i ti@tL?@* @_ t|4i?| 4L_i

A i 4L_i** ?} 4L_ *i Lu g •0 (S} t _it }?i_ uLh hi} +W• 4L_i* M *_ ?} | ti@tL?@* iUL?L4 U | 4i tih it AL | t i?_c ti ih@* U@|i}Lh it Lu Thi_i€?i_ hi}hitt L?@h @M*it @hi @ @ *@M*i ? g •0 (S} c ?U* _ ?} |hi?_ UL?t|@?|t Lh L ih@** 4i@?tc € i_ ti@tL?@* igiU|tc |h@_ ?} _@) igiU|tc L* _@) igiU|tc T *ti igiU|t E@__ | i L |* iht c *i i* t u|tc |i4TLh@h) U @?}i L |* ihtc @?_ h@4T igiU|t Ntih _i€?i_ hi}hitt L? @h @M*it U@? @*tL Mi i@t *) hi@_ ? @?_ ?U* _i_ ? 4L_i*t A i ThL}h@4 t _it }?i_ @hL ?_ tTiU €U U@T@M * | it ?ii_i_ uLh hi} +W• 4L_i** ?}c @?_ t ?L| ?|i?_i_ @t @ }i?ih@* T hTLti t|@| t| U@* T@U!@}i W? T@h| U *@hc g •0 (S} t L *_ Mi ti_ ? UL? ?U| L? | L| ih E}h@T Ut tLu| @hi U@T@M*i Lu ThL_ U ?} } hitL* | L? T*L|t Lu | 4i tih it

Mtih @| L?t E_@|@ uhL4 @ | 4i tih it |L Mi 4L_i**i_ @?_%Lh ti@tL?@**) @_ t|i_t ?} g •0 (S} t L *_ Mi ^ @?| |@| ic @t LTTLti_ |L M ?@h) Lh U@|i}Lh U@* Mtih @ | L?t 4 t| Mi i^ @**) tT@Ui_ ? | 4ic @?_ 4 tt ?} @* it @hi ?L| @**L i_ g •0 (S}@?_*it L?*) ? @h @|i | 4i tih it 4L_i*tc i c | _Lit ?L| it| 4@|i hi*@| L?t Tt Mi | ii? _ gihi?| | 4i tih it

g •0 (S} tit | i t|@?_@h_ ER _ ^ E ( ' ?L|@| L? uLh ti@tL?@* +W• 4L_

r

i*t A i ER _ ^ hiuiht |L | i Lh_iht Lu | i ?L?ti@tL?@* @ |Lhi}hitt i E + c _ gihi?U ?}c

@?_ 4L ?} @ ih@}i E• LTih@|Lhtc hitTiU| i*) A i E ( ' hiuiht |L | i ti@tL?@*

r

@ |Lhi}hitt ic _ gihi?U ?}c @?_ 4L ?} @ ih@}i Lh_iht A i r t MtUh T| _i?L|it | i

6

ti@tL?@* Tih L_c i } c r ' •2 uLh 4L?| *) _@|@ Bhi@| i M * |) t @**L i_ ? | i tTiU €U@| L? Lu +W• t|h U| hitG @?) ? 4Mih Lu +c • c @?_ _ gihi?U ?} LTih@|Lht 4@) Mi ti_( 4 tt ?} *@}t @hi @**L i_ ? + @?_ • LTih@|Lht( @?_ + @?_ • T@h@4i|iht U@? Mi € i_ @| tih tTiU €i_ @* it

6Lh | i tih L t it |L €| U t|L4 3i_ | 4i tih it 4L_i*tc g •0 (S} ThL _it U@T@M * | it uLh | i | hii 4L_i** ?} t|@}it Lu _i?| €U@| L?c it| 4@| L?c @?_ _ @}?Lt| U U iU! ?} A i tTiU €U@| L? Lu @ hi} +W• 4L_i* hi^ hit tTiU €U@| L? ML| Lu | i hi}hitt L? @h @M*it |L Mi ?U* _i_ ? | i 4L_i* @?_ @*tL | i |)Ti Lu +W• 4L_i* uLh

| i hi}hitt L? ihhLht E i c | i Lh_iht ER _ ^ E ( ' 5TiU €U@| L? Lu | i hi}hitt L?

r

@h @M*it _iTi?_t L? tih !?L *i_}i @ML | | i tih it Mi ?} 4L_i**i_ W_i?| €U@| L? Lu | i +W• 4L_i* uLh | i hi}hitt L? ihhLht uL**L t i** it|@M* t i_ ThLUi_ hit M@ti_ L? i @4 ?@| L? Lu @h L t t@4T*i @ |LULhhi*@| L? @?_ T@h| @* @ |LULhhi*@| L? u ?U| L?t ThL_ Ui_ M) g •0 (S} ?Ui @ hi} +W• 4L_i* @t Mii? tTiU €i_c g •0 (S}** it| 4@|i |t T@h@4i|iht M) 4@ 4 4 * !i* LL_ t ?} @? |ih@| i }i?ih@* 3i_ *i@t| t^ @hit EWBw5 @*}Lh | 4 # @}?Lt| U U iU! ?} ? L* it i @4 ?@| L? Lu hit _ @*t uhL4 | i €||i_ 4L_i* uLh t }?t Lu 4L_i* ?@_i^ @U) g •0 (S} ThL_ Uit ti ih@* t|@?_@h_ hit _ @* _ @}?Lt| Ut uLh 4L_i* U iU! ?}c @t i** @t ThL _ ?} tLT t| U@|i_ 4i| L_t uLh _i|iU| ?} @__ | i L |* iht @?_ *i i* t u|t 6 ?@**)c g •0 (S} U@? ThL_ Ui TL ?| uLhiU@t|tc uLhiU@t| t|@?_@h_ ihhLhtc @?_ Thi_ U| L? ?|ih @*t uhL4 | i €||i_ hi} +W• 4L_i*

W? @__ | L? |L | iti 4L_i** ?} ui@| hitc g •0 (S} @t @? @ |L4@| U 4L_i* ti*iU | L? ThLUi_ hi @?_ @? LT| L? U tit W |L _i|ih4 ?i u tih tTiU €i_ hi}hitt L?@h @M*it Et U @t |h@_ ?} _@) Lh ,@t|ih hi}hittLht t L *_ Mi ?U* _i_ ?|L @ T@h| U *@h tih it *tLc t|Lh it U@? Mi }i?ih@|i_ uLh * !i* LL_ t|@| t| Ut Et U @t W c @ iht L? Lu !@ !i<t W | @| @_ t|t uLh | i *i?}| Lu | i tih it Mi ?} 4L_i*i_ @?_ uLhiU@t|t |L u@U * |@|i UL4T@h tL?t Mi| ii? UL4Ti| ?} 4L_i*t

A i ?i | € i tiU| L?t _i|@ * U@T@M * | it Lu | i g •0 (S} ThL}h@4 5iU| L? 2 ThL_it @? L ih i Lu h ?? ?} g •0 (S} @?_ i T*@ ?t ThL}h@4 * 4 |t | @| tiht U@? U @?}i 5iU| L? _ tU ttit | i }i?ih@* hi} +W• 4L_i* €| M) | i g •0 (S} ThL }h@4c t 44@h 3it | i |iU ? U@* t|iTt ? L* i_ ? hi} +W• 4L_i** ?} @?_ uLhiU@t| ?}c @?_ hi*@|it | iti t|iTt |L U@T@M * | it Lu | i ThL}h@4 5iU| L? e _ tU ttit tL4i !i) TL ?|t hi*@|i_ |L 4L_i* it| 4@| L? @?_ ?uihi?Ui | @| @** tiht Lu | i 4L_i** ?} ui@| hit t L *_ Mi @ @hi Luc ?U* _ ?} tL4i it| 4@| L? ThLM*i4t | @| 4@) @h ti @?_ @)t |L @__hitt | i4 5iU| L? D ThL _it @ }i?ih@* _itUh T| L? Lu | i hi^ hi_ ?T | €*i EtTiU€U@| L? €*i c @?_ @*tL _ tU ttit tTiU €U@| L? €*i t)?|@ @?_ hi*@|i_ tt it A i uLU t? 5iU| L?t 2 D t L? } ?} @? L ih i Lu | i ti @?_ U@T@M * | it Lu | i g •0 (S} ThL}h@4 W? UL?|h@t|c 5iU| L? S t ?|i?_i_ @t | i Th 4@h) hiuihi?Ui |L Mi ti_ i? UL?t|h U| ?} tTiU €U@| L? €*it uLh h ?? ?} g •0 (S} W| } it _i|@ *i_ _LU 4i?|@| L? uLh i@U tTiU €U@| L? t|@|i4i?| | @| U@? @TTi@h ? | i tTiU €U@| L? €*i A iti t|@|i 4i?|t u ?U| L? @t UL44@?_t | @| UL?|hL* | i L Lu g •0 (S} <t i iU | L? @?_ ti*iU| @4L?} | i @h L t ThL}h@4 LT| L?t

7

2 + ?? ?} j •2 +W•

hLUi_ hit uLh ?t|@** ?} g •0 (S} @hi 4@U ?i tTiU €U( ?uLh4@| L? @ML | | t t ThL _i_ | | i ThL}h@4c @?_ t @*tL @ @ *@M*i ? | i €*i "P K"zp" •0>"() }) L? | i W?|ih?i| @| qzP Qf=p p {J O@ ?} ?t|@**i_ | i ThL}h@4 L? @ 4 UhLUL4T |ih h ?? ?} @ # 5 LTih@| ?} t)t|i4c @ }i?ih U t|@|i4i?| |L h ? g •0 (S} t

T@| q •0> T@| qq 'f=>2f

W? | t t|@|i4i?| T@| ,q 'f=>2f pPQ t | i 4@ ? ?T | EtTiU €U@| L? €*i ti_ M) g •0 (S} A i ThL}h@4 Uhi@|i_ @ €*i ?@4i_ T@| ,q 'f=>2f J z @t @? L |T | €*i A i T@| |L g •0 (S} t ?iUitt@h) u | i €*i UL?|@ ? ?} | i g •0 (S} ThL}h@4 t ?L| ? | i U hhi?| _ hiU|Lh)( t 4 *@h*) uLh | i T@| |L | i ?T | €*i q 'f=>2f pPQ

L|i | @| L?*) | i €*i?@4i t tTiU €i_c ?L| | i i |i?t L?( | i ThL}h@4 ** ti | i €*i?@4i ThL _i_ @| h ?| 4i |L uLh4 | i €*i?@4it uLh @** €*it }i?ih@|i_ M) | i ThL}h@4 6Lh @? g •0 (S} h ? t ?} | i tTiU €*i €*i?@4i tTUc | i L |T | ** Mi t|Lhi_ ? | i €*i €*i?@4i L |c | i ihhLh 4itt@}it ** Mi t|Lhi_ ? | i €*i €*i?@4i ihhc i|U A tc u | i tTiU €*i • pPQ t ? @ # 5 <t U hhi?| _ hiU|Lh)c |)T ?}

•0> •

@?_ Thitt ?} | i efz e=9 ELh f=zfe9 !i) ** U@ ti | i ThL}h@4 |L h ? @?_ Uhi@|i €*it • J z @?_ • fee ? | i U hhi?| _ hiU|Lh)

hL}h@4 ?T | @?_ L |T | @hi ML| _ tU tti_ Mh i ) Mi*L c @?_ 4Lhi i |i?t i*) ? | i _LU 4i?|@| L? | @| uL**L t AL h ? | i ThL}h@4 ?_ih @ N Wj LTih@| ?} t)t|i4c t Mt| | |i EuLh @h_ t*@t it uLh | i M@U!t*@t it ? | i }i?ih U t|@|i4i?|t @ML i AL h ? g •0 (S} ?_ih L| ih LTih@| ?} t)t|i4tc tTiU u) T@| tc i|U c t ?} | i t)?|@ @TThLTh @|i uLh | i t)t|i4 6Lh | i # 5c N Wj @?_ V j%V•5 LTih@| ?} t)t|i4tc @ ^ U! hiuihi?Ui _LU 4i?| t @*tL @ @ *@M*ic } ?} 4Lhi _i|@ *i_ ?t|h U| L?t L? | i t)?|@ uLh h ?? ?} g •0 (S} ? | iti LTih@| ?} t)t|i4t

2 • W?T |

AL @TT*) g •0 (S} |L @?) T@h| U *@h | 4i tih itc @ 4@ ? ?T | €*ic U@**i_ @ tTiU €U@| L? €*ic 4 t| Mi Uhi@|i_ A t 5 WW ELh R|i | €*i UL?|@ ?t @ ti| Lu tTiU €U@| L?t Lh tTiUt | @| g •0 (S} hi@_t |L LM|@ ? | i ?uLh4@| L? | ?ii_t @ML | | i | 4i tih it _@|@c | i | 4i tih it 4L_i* |L Mi ti_c | i @?@*)t t |L Mi TihuLh4i_c @?_ | i L |T | _it hi_ g •0 (S} @tt 4it | @| | i tTiU €U@| L? €*i @t | i i |i?t L? pPQ A t T@| ,q 'f=>2f t t U i?| ? | i @ML i t|@|i4i?|t A i L?*) ?T | €*it L| ih | @? | i tTiU €*i | @| g •0 (S} 4@) ?ii_ @hi LT| L?@* €*it UL?|@ ? ?} _@|@ uLh | i | 4i tih it Mi ?} 4L_i**i_c _@|@ uLh @?) tih _i€?i_ hi}hitt L? @h @M*itc @* it uLh @?) tih _i€?i_ Th Lh @_ t|4i?| u@U|Lhtc @?_ 4L_i* |)Tit |L |h) | | i @ |L4@| U 4L_i* ti*iU| L? ThLUi_ hi A i ?@4it Lu | iti €*it E ?U* _ ?} T@| t @hi ThL _i_ |L g •0(S} M) * t| ?} | i4 ? @TThLTh @|i tTiUt ? | i tTiU €*i A i ti Lu t U @__ | L?@*?T | €*it t LT| L?@* MiU@ ti | i tih U@? @*|ih?@| i*) ?U* _i | i _@|@ @* it hi^ hi_